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成(cheng)品油庫存大(da)降(jiang)國際油價漲超(chao)2%，倫鎳大(da)幅(fu)下挫跌(die)超(chao)7%

日期：2021-3-4
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摘要：3月3日，芝加哥主要農產品期價(jia)(jia)收盤(pan)全線下(xia)跌(die)，其中美玉米下(xia)跌(die)1.79%；國(guo)際(ji)油(you)價(jia)(jia)顯(xian)著上漲(zhang)，美油(you)、布油(you)分別收漲(zhang)2.56%和2.19%；紐約(yue)金價(jia)(jia)收盤(pan)下(xia)跌(die)1.03%；LME基本(ben)金屬(shu)全線下(xia)跌(die)，倫(lun)鎳大(da)幅下(xia)挫，跌(die)幅達7.72%。

【農產品】

芝(zhi)加哥(ge)期(qi)貨(huo)交(jiao)易(yi)所玉米(mi)(mi)、小麥和大豆(dou)(dou)期(qi)價3日全線下跌。當(dang)天，芝(zhi)加哥(ge)期(qi)貨(huo)交(jiao)易(yi)所玉米(mi)(mi)市(shi)場交(jiao)投最(zui)活躍(yue)的5月(yue)合(he)約(yue)收(shou)于每(mei)蒲(pu)(pu)式耳(er)(er)5.3525美(mei)(mei)元，比前一(yi)交(jiao)易(yi)日下跌9.75美(mei)(mei)分，跌幅為1.79%；小麥5月(yue)合(he)約(yue)收(shou)于每(mei)蒲(pu)(pu)式耳(er)(er)6.56美(mei)(mei)元，比前一(yi)交(jiao)易(yi)日下跌10.25美(mei)(mei)分，跌幅為1.54%；大豆(dou)(dou)5月(yue)合(he)約(yue)收(shou)于每(mei)蒲(pu)(pu)式耳(er)(er)14.075美(mei)(mei)元，比前一(yi)交(jiao)易(yi)日下跌5美(mei)(mei)分，跌幅為0.35%。

因擔憂本周美(mei)國(guo)(guo)農產(chan)品出口(kou)銷(xiao)售(shou)繼續放緩，小麥市場首先出現賣盤，帶動玉米、大(da)(da)豆(dou)期價下(xia)跌。由于南(nan)美(mei)洲大(da)(da)豆(dou)產(chan)量和質量均(jun)下(xia)降，中國(guo)(guo)也沒有表現出取消或推遲購買美(mei)國(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)豆(dou)的意(yi)愿，市場分析機(ji)(ji)構認為農產(chan)品市場下(xia)跌即是買進機(ji)(ji)會。（芝加哥分社記者徐靜(jing)）

【能源】

由于上(shang)周美(mei)國(guo)成品(pin)(pin)油庫(ku)存大幅(fu)下降和(he)市場對歐(ou)佩克與伙(huo)伴國(guo)上(shang)調原油供應量的(de)擔憂減弱(ruo)，國(guo)際原油期(qi)貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在隔夜市場上(shang)漲。截至當天收(shou)盤時，紐約商(shang)品(pin)(pin)交(jiao)易(yi)所2021年4月(yue)交(jiao)貨的(de)輕質原油期(qi)貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲1.53美(mei)元，收(shou)于每桶61.28美(mei)元，漲幅(fu)為(wei)2.56%。2021年5月(yue)交(jiao)貨的(de)倫敦布(bu)倫特(te)原油期(qi)貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)則上(shang)漲1.37美(mei)元，收(shou)于每桶64.07美(mei)元，漲幅(fu)為(wei)2.19%。

美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)能源信息局在(zai)(zai)3日公(gong)布(bu)的(de)數據顯示，由于(yu)得(de)克薩斯州煉(lian)(lian)廠因極寒天氣大(da)范(fan)圍關停，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)商(shang)業(ye)原(yuan)油(you)庫(ku)存(cun)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)4.846億(yi)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)大(da)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)增加了(le)2160萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，創下(xia)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)增幅(fu)(fu)(fu)的(de)最大(da)記錄。同期，車用汽油(you)庫(ku)存(cun)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)大(da)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)下(xia)降了(le)1360萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)歷史上(shang)(shang)最大(da)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)降幅(fu)(fu)(fu)，蒸(zheng)餾油(you)庫(ku)存(cun)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)降幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)970萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2003年以(yi)來的(de)最大(da)降幅(fu)(fu)(fu)，丙烷和(he)丙烯(xi)庫(ku)存(cun)降幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)220萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)。包(bao)括(kuo)商(shang)業(ye)原(yuan)油(you)、成(cheng)品油(you)、丙烷和(he)丙烯(xi)等在(zai)(zai)內，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)商(shang)業(ye)石(shi)油(you)庫(ku)存(cun)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降了(le)280萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)。數據還(huan)顯示，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)煉(lian)(lian)廠日均原(yuan)油(you)加工量(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)990萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降了(le)230萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)；煉(lian)(lian)廠平均開(kai)工率為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)56%，創下(xia)最低(di)記錄，顯著低(di)于(yu)前一周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)的(de)68.6%；上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)日均原(yuan)油(you)凈進口量(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)394.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)顯著增加了(le)165.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，主要源于(yu)原(yuan)油(you)進口的(de)增加。此外，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)庫(ku)欣地(di)區商(shang)業(ye)原(yuan)油(you)庫(ku)存(cun)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)4830萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)增加了(le)50萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)；上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)戰略原(yuan)油(you)儲備連續第三周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)維(wei)持(chi)在(zai)(zai)6.377億(yi)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)不變；上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)日均原(yuan)油(you)產量(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)增加了(le)30萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)。美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)石(shi)油(you)學會(hui)在(zai)(zai)2日晚些時(shi)候公(gong)布(bu)的(de)數據顯示，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)商(shang)業(ye)和(he)元(yuan)還(huan)有庫(ku)存(cun)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)增加了(le)735.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，而汽油(you)和(he)蒸(zheng)餾油(you)庫(ku)存(cun)分別環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降了(le)993.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)和(he)905.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)。

Again資本(ben)公司創始(shi)合伙人(ren)約翰?基(ji)(ji)爾達夫(JohnKilduff)說，上(shang)周美國汽柴油庫(ku)存的(de)(de)下降百(bai)分百(bai)是基(ji)(ji)于得克薩斯州的(de)(de)極寒天(tian)氣，該州整(zheng)個供(gong)應鏈被凍住，并導致油品庫(ku)存的(de)(de)下降。據路透(tou)社(she)援引多名歐(ou)(ou)佩克+消(xiao)息人(ren)士的(de)(de)話說，該組織正在考慮把(ba)(ba)當前(qian)的(de)(de)減(jian)產(chan)力度從3月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)延長到4月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)，而非在4月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)提(ti)高產(chan)量。市場廣泛預(yu)計(ji)，歐(ou)(ou)佩克+將在4日召開的(de)(de)例行會議(yi)上(shang)決定從4月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)開始(shi)把(ba)(ba)減(jian)產(chan)額度縮小50萬桶/日左右，沙特(te)則(ze)預(yu)計(ji)將在4月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)結束100萬桶/日的(de)(de)自愿減(jian)產(chan)。（北美總(zong)分社(she)記者劉亞南劉國遠）

【金屬】

因美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)債收益率上漲，紐(niu)約商品交(jiao)易所黃(huang)(huang)金期貨市場交(jiao)投(tou)最(zui)活躍的2021年4月黃(huang)(huang)金期價(jia)3日比(bi)前(qian)一交(jiao)易日下跌(die)17.8美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，收于每盎司1715.8美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，跌(die)幅為(wei)1.03%。當天(tian)黃(huang)(huang)金收盤(pan)價(jia)為(wei)2020年6月8日以(yi)來(lai)最(zui)低價(jia)格。市場分析(xi)人士認(ren)為(wei)，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)實施(shi)大規模經濟刺激(ji)計(ji)劃可能導(dao)致美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)聯邦儲備(bei)委(wei)員(yuan)會早于計(ji)劃開始加(jia)息。如此(ci)黃(huang)(huang)金遭遇的阻力下半年將(jiang)再次加(jia)強。瑞(rui)銀(yin)集(ji)團此(ci)將(jiang)黃(huang)(huang)金價(jia)格預期下調150美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，預計(ji)今年6月底黃(huang)(huang)金價(jia)格為(wei)每盎司1750美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)；9月底為(wei)1700美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)；12月底至(zhi)2022年3月底黃(huang)(huang)金價(jia)格為(wei)1650美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)。

當天2021年5月交割的白銀期(qi)貨價(jia)格下(xia)跌(die)49.2美分，收于每盎司(si)26.387美元(yuan)，跌(die)幅為1.83%；4月交割的白金期(qi)貨價(jia)格下(xia)跌(die)32.6美元(yuan)，收于每盎司(si)1181.8美元(yuan)，跌(die)幅為2.68%。（芝加哥分社記(ji)者徐靜）

受庫存增(zeng)加和期(qi)(qi)(qi)權(quan)到(dao)期(qi)(qi)(qi)影響，倫(lun)敦(dun)(dun)金屬(shu)交易(yi)(yi)所基(ji)本(ben)金屬(shu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨價(jia)格(ge)3日(ri)全線(xian)下(xia)跌(die)，期(qi)(qi)(qi)鎳跌(die)幅達(da)7.72%。3個月(yue)期(qi)(qi)(qi)鎳收(shou)于每(mei)噸17280美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，比(bi)前一交易(yi)(yi)日(ri)下(xia)跌(die)1445美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，跌(die)幅為(wei)(wei)7.72%。Fastmarkets的分析師安(an)娜(na)·德·麗茲表(biao)示(shi)，倫(lun)敦(dun)(dun)金屬(shu)交易(yi)(yi)所升(sheng)至2018年7月(yue)以來(lai)的最高值使(shi)承壓。3個月(yue)期(qi)(qi)(qi)銅(tong)收(shou)于每(mei)噸9118美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，比(bi)前一交易(yi)(yi)日(ri)下(xia)跌(die)158美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，跌(die)幅為(wei)(wei)1.71%。投行杰弗瑞(rui)表(biao)示(shi)在(zai)報告中表(biao)示(shi)，盡管短(duan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)內的波動(dong)性將增(zeng)加，但已經有(you)清晰(xi)的路徑可(ke)(ke)以判斷銅(tong)均價(jia)將在(zai)2025年升(sheng)至預估的每(mei)噸13000美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)以上。國王期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨分析師認(ren)為(wei)(wei)，當(dang)天倫(lun)敦(dun)(dun)金屬(shu)交易(yi)(yi)期(qi)(qi)(qi)權(quan)到(dao)期(qi)(qi)(qi)也是價(jia)格(ge)波動(dong)的原因(yin)之一，期(qi)(qi)(qi)權(quan)到(dao)期(qi)(qi)(qi)后也許(xu)可(ke)(ke)以看到(dao)價(jia)格(ge)的實(shi)際走勢。

其他(ta)金屬方面(mian)，3個(ge)月期(qi)鋁收于每(mei)噸(dun)2215美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，比(bi)前(qian)一交易(yi)日下(xia)(xia)跌9.5美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，跌幅為0.43%。3個(ge)月期(qi)鉛收于每(mei)噸(dun)2042美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，比(bi)前(qian)一交易(yi)日下(xia)(xia)跌32.5美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，跌幅為1.57%。3個(ge)月期(qi)錫(xi)收于每(mei)噸(dun)23775美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，比(bi)前(qian)一交易(yi)日下(xia)(xia)跌655美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，跌幅為2.68%。3個(ge)月期(qi)鋅(xin)收于每(mei)噸(dun)2781美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，比(bi)前(qian)一交易(yi)日下(xia)(xia)跌69美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，跌幅為2.42%。